New poll has Malloy/Foley in a dead heat

Greenwich resident Tom Foley might not want to start picking out new drapes for the governor’s mansion in Hartford  quite yet as a new poll has him locked in a virtual tie with incumbent Gov. Dannel Malloy.

The poll done by YouGov, in partnership with the New York Times and CBS News, has Malloy and Foley tied at 37% — and if you include voters who are leaning toward a decision, the governor is up 42%-41%. Of the 1,808 interviewed for the poll, 14% are still unsure and 3% selected other, which could be independent conservative Joe Visconti.

This comes on the heels of a a more traditional poll published by Quinnipiac that had  Foley up six points on Malloy this week in a rematch of their 2010 race, which Malloy narrowly won. And while the methodology of this poll, which relies on Internet responses, has been questioned, the findings here unquestionably show better news for the governor compared to where the same group had him two months ago.

YouGov poll released in July — before the GOP primary — had Foley leading Malloy nine points, 42%-33%. That poll included 8% of undecided respondents were leaning toward Malloy as opposed to 6% for Foley. Malloy also has a distinct advantage with women voters, leading Foley 42%-29%.

In the latest poll, Malloy has lost some ground with women voters and Foley gained just a bit with Malloy still leading among women, 38%-30%. Foley leads among men, 44%-36%, according to the YouGov poll, which gathered its numbers between Aug. 18 and Sept. 2.

The Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University poll released Sept. 10 had Foley up 46%-40%. That poll was conducted more recently — but over a shorter period — from Sept. 3-8, among 1,308 likely voters. It has a 2.7% margin of error.

This new poll does not use the traditional methods that are employed by organizations such as Quinnipiac. Instead its findings are based on online panels. Polls were conducted by YouGov across the nation and it remains unclear how reliable the data is given that this is the first release from the group this year.

More details are available here.


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